US nominal GDP growth in 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 1.0% (97.0%), Above 3.0% (96.0%), Above 1.5% (96.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 04 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.0% | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Above 3.0% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 1.5% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 2.5% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 2.0% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 4.5% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 0.0% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 0.5% | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above 5.0% | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Above 5.5% | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Above 6.0% | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 1.0%:
If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2026 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2026 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2026,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.
Sources
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