Trump declares a national emergency by...?

As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 19:05:36 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (23.5%), November 30 (9.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
December 3123.5%23.5¢76.5¢
November 309.5%9.5¢90.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency pursuant to the National Emergencies Act between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, announcements of an intention to declare a national emergency, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that do not declare a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals, continuations, or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify. Amendments to or expansions of previously existing national emergencies will also not qualify unless they formally declare a new national emergency. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

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