Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by end of year
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above .7% (56.0%), Above .8% (6.0%), Above 1.00% (4.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above .7% | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Above .8% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Above 1.00% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Above .9% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above .7%:
If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .7%, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note that intraday changes will not be reflected in the Underlying, as FRED only posts a single value per day.
Sources
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