10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price 4.75% or above (86.0%), 5% or above (69.0%), 5.1% or above (61.0%). The market has $55K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.75% or above | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| 5% or above | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| 5.1% or above | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| 5.15% or above | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| 5.25% or above | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| 5.5% or above | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| 5.75% or above | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| 6% or above | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $55K
- Liquidity: $55K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 4.75% or above:
If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.
Sources
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