Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:32:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 150 (96.0%), Above 160 (93.0%), Above 170 (85.0%). The market has $53K in volume and closes on Tue, 27 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 160 | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| Above 170 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Above 180 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Above 185 | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| Above 190 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above 195 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| Above 200 | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| Above 205 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Above 210 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Above 220 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $53K
- Liquidity: $53K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 150:
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Sources
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