Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% (90.0%), Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥4% (88.0%), Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7% (75.0%). The market has $27K in volume and closes on Mon, 25 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥4% | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7% | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥8% | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥10% | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥13% | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥16% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $27K
- Liquidity: $27K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%:
If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Tocantins is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes cast in the state of Tocantins (excluding blank and null votes) received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolsonaro loses. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the margin will be positive; if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, the margin will be negative; if Flávio Bolsonaro ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Flávio Bolsonaro runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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