SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:59:17 UTC, Polymarket traders price November 30, 2026 (70.5%), Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? (60.5%), Chopsticks catch Starship? (45.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Dec 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
November 30, 202670.5%70.5¢29.5¢
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?60.5%60.5¢39.5¢
Chopsticks catch Starship?45.5%45.5¢54.5¢
Super Heavy booster explodes?45.5%45.5¢54.5¢
Successful splash down?30.5%30.5¢69.5¢
November 15, 202617.5%17.5¢82.5¢
October 31, 20260.9%0.9¢99.2¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for November 30, 2026:

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Sources

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