Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:45:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price Oil ≥ $80; R Senate (34.4%), Oil < $80; R Senate (3.4%). The market has $25K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 34.4% | 34.4¢ | 65.5¢ |
| Oil < $80; R Senate | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $25K
- Liquidity: $74K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Oil ≥ $80; R Senate:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if oil is greater than or equal to $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Oil price: This market will resolve based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract,…
Sources
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