Next Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:25:35 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1440+ (55.5%), 1450+ (41.5%), 1460+ (41.5%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1440+ | 55.5% | 55.5¢ | 44.5¢ |
| 1450+ | 41.5% | 41.5¢ | 58.5¢ |
| 1460+ | 41.5% | 41.5¢ | 58.5¢ |
| 1470+ | 23.5% | 23.5¢ | 76.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $726
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this mark…
Sources
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