Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:31:46 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1480+ (69.0%), 1490+ (67.5%), 1500+ (58.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Wed, 30 Jun 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1480+ | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| 1490+ | 67.5% | 67.5¢ | 32.5¢ |
| 1500+ | 58.0% | 58.0¢ | 42.0¢ |
| 1510+ | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta Muse Spark model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to t…
Sources
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