Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:39:20 UTC, Polymarket traders price 40%+ (32.7%), 45%+ (30.5%), 50%+ (29.5%). The market has $39K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40%+ | 32.7% | 32.7¢ | 67.3¢ |
| 45%+ | 30.5% | 30.5¢ | 69.5¢ |
| 50%+ | 29.5% | 29.5¢ | 70.5¢ |
| 55%+ | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $39K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qual…
Sources
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