Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?
As of Mon, 02 Nov 2026 01:32:41 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 30% (91.0%), Above 32% (86.0%), Above 34% (81.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Sat, 06 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30% | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Above 32% | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Above 34% | 81.0% | 81.0¢ | 19.0¢ |
| Above 36% | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Above 38% | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Above 40% | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Above 42% | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Above 44% | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Above 46% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 30%:
If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 30%, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the sum of the percentages of all voters shown for "Strongly approve" and "Somewhat approve" on the question asking voters' opinion of Donald Trump as president in the national U.S. House exit poll. If those two figures are not shown separately, the value is the percentage of all voters shown for "Approve" on that question. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.
Sources
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