Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:45:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price Democrats, ≥2% (97.0%), Democrats, ≥4% (93.0%), Democrats, ≥6% (85.0%). The market has $43K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, ≥2% | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Democrats, ≥4% | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| Democrats, ≥6% | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Democrats, ≥8% | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Democrats, ≥10% | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Democrats, ≥11% | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Democrats, ≥12% | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Democrats, ≥14% | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Democrats, ≥16% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $43K
- Liquidity: $43K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Democrats, ≥2%:
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
Sources
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