Israeli legislative election: % of vote below threshold
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 07:03:11 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 2% (93.0%), At least 3% (85.0%), At least 4% (69.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2% | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| At least 3% | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| At least 4% | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| At least 5% | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| At least 6% | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| At least 7% | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| At least 8% | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| At least 9% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| At least 10% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 2%:
If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 2% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the combined percentage of valid votes cast for all lists that fail the 3.25% electoral threshold in Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election (the lists allocated no seats), calculated as 100 × (the sum of the votes received by those lists ÷ total valid votes) using the per-list vote totals and total valid votes in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results, rounded to two decimal places. Whether a list passes the threshold is decided on unrounded vote totals: a list whose unrounded share is 3.25% or more is not counted, and only the combined value is rounded. A joint list counts as one list. A list that has withdrawn from the race but remains on the ballot is counted if the results record votes for it. Preliminary results do not qualify. Invalid ballots are excluded from the numerator and the denominator. If no qualifying results are released by expiration, the market resolves to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange.
Sources
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