Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:14:06 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (6.2%). The market has $98 in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6.2% | 6.2¢ | 93.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $98
- Liquidity: $193
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, aut…
Sources
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