Israel military action against Beirut by...?
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 04:39:45 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (12.5%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Sat, 31 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12.5% | 12.5¢ | 87.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $16K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban…
Sources
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