Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:43:21 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (4.7%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.7% | 4.7¢ | 95.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $27K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah,…
Sources
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