Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:58:13 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (33.0%), November 30 (26.0%), October 31 (8.0%). The market has $37K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| November 30 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| October 31 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $37K
- Liquidity: $83K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do n…
Sources
Related markets
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
- What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- US military draft authorized in 2026?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.