How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:09:00 UTC, Polymarket traders price 6.5+ (99.6%), 7.0+ (99.6%), 7.5+ (97.5%). The market has $21K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5+ | 99.6% | 99.6¢ | 0.4¢ |
| 7.0+ | 99.6% | 99.6¢ | 0.4¢ |
| 7.5+ | 97.5% | 97.5¢ | 2.5¢ |
| 8.0+ | 7.1% | 7.1¢ | 92.9¢ |
| 9.0+ | 3.5% | 3.5¢ | 96.5¢ |
| 8.5+ | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $21K
- Liquidity: $11K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not…
Sources
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