How many Republican-favored Senate races will Republicans win?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 22:34:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 11 (97.0%), At least 12 (97.0%), All 13 (44.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Mon, 15 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 11 | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| At least 12 | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| All 13 | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 11:
If the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party is at least 11 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The Republican-favored races are the 13 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) in the states that the Cook Political Report rated Solid Republican or Likely Republican in its Senate race ratings dated Oct 30, 2026: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming. The Florida race is the special election. That list is fixed as of Issuance, so later rating changes do NOT add or remove a race. The count is the number of those 13 races won by a nominee of the Republican Party. A candidate who wins as an independent, or under a fusion, minor-party, or write-in line without being the Republican Party's own nominee, does NOT count, even if no Republican Party nominee appeared on the ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs.
Sources
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