Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 01:11:13 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (43.5%), November 30 (34.0%), October 31 (12.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 43.5% | 43.5¢ | 56.5¢ |
| November 30 | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| October 31 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $53K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control. Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify. Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual Houthi control has been established. If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying capture cannot be determi…
Sources
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