Hawaii total visitor arrivals this year
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:58 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 9.4 million (98.0%), Above 9.6 million (74.0%), Above 9.8 million (16.0%). The market has $33K in volume and closes on Sun, 07 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 9.4 million | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 9.6 million | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| Above 9.8 million | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Above 10.0 million | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Above 10.2 million | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $33K
- Liquidity: $33K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 9.4 million:
If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 9.4 million, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships, as reported by the State of Hawaii. It does not use visitor days, average daily census, airport passenger throughput, or arrivals to an individual island. Visitors who fly to Hawaii to board a cruise ship are already included in air arrivals and are not separately added again. Resolution uses the first publication containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution. DBEDT’s 2025 total, for example, was 9,642,991 = 9,493,213 by air + 149,778 by cruise ship.
Sources
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