French socialist bloc presidential primary winner?
As of Sat, 10 Oct 2026 22:53:52 UTC, Kalshi traders price Raphaël Glucksmann (85.0%), Jérôme Guedj (20.0%), Bernard Cazeneuve (17.0%). The market has $23K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Jérôme Guedj | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Olivier Faure | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Philippe Brun | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Boris Vallaud | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| François Hollande | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $23K
- Liquidity: $23K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Raphaël Glucksmann:
If Raphaël Glucksmann wins the primary to select the French pôle socialiste’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Sources
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