France declares state of emergency by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:39:03 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (17.5%), October 31 (7.5%), October 21 (2.1%). The market has $114K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| October 31 | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| October 21 | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 97.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $114K
- Liquidity: $94K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
Related markets
- Next French Presidential Election
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden
- Will Alberta join the US?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.