California's 4th District margin of victory
As of Thu, 05 Nov 2026 10:03:41 UTC, Kalshi traders price Eric Jones, 1+ pts (48.0%), Eric Jones, 10+ pts (36.0%), Eric Jones, 5+ pts (33.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Jones, 1+ pts | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Eric Jones, 10+ pts | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| Eric Jones, 5+ pts | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| Eric Jones, 15+ pts | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Eric Jones, 1+ pts:
If Eric Jones wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Eric Jones minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Eric Jones if Eric Jones wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Eric Jones loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Eric Jones runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Eric Jones will be summed. If Eric Jones wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Eric Jones loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Eric Jones ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Eric Jones is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Sources
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