Bulgarian presidential first round: Yotova margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 09:09:07 UTC, Kalshi traders price Iliana Yotova, ≥10% (99.0%), Iliana Yotova, ≥15% (85.0%), Iliana Yotova, ≥20% (80.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Mon, 25 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iliana Yotova, ≥10% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Iliana Yotova, ≥15% | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Iliana Yotova, ≥20% | 80.0% | 80.0¢ | 20.0¢ |
| Iliana Yotova, ≥25% | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| Iliana Yotova, ≥35% | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Iliana Yotova, ≥5% | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Iliana Yotova, ≥30% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Iliana Yotova, ≥10%:
If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (counting ballots marked “I do not support anyone” and excluding invalid ballots) received by Iliana Yotova minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Iliana Yotova if Iliana Yotova wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Iliana Yotova loses. If Iliana Yotova wins, the margin will be positive; if Iliana Yotova loses, the margin will be negative; if Iliana Yotova ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Iliana Yotova runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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