Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:26:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% (33.0%), Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% (31.0%), Lula da Silva, 0-3% (21.0%). The market has $108K in volume and closes on Mon, 25 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 0-3% | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 3-6% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 6-9% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, ≥9% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $108K
- Liquidity: $108K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%:
If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (votos válidos, excluding blank and null votes) received by the candidate named in the market minus the share received by the other candidate in the runoff if the named candidate wins, or the share of the candidate that finishes first if the named candidate loses. If the named candidate wins, the margin will be positive; if the named candidate loses, the margin will be negative; if the named candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Sources
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