Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
As of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:11:41 UTC, Kalshi traders price Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% (100.0%), Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥15% (1.0%), Lula da Silva, 5-10% (1.0%). The market has $200K in volume and closes on Mon, 04 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥15% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 5-10% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Renan Santos wins | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 10-15% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, ≥15% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 0-5% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Romeu Zema wins | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Fernando Haddad wins | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Lula da Silva, 10-15% | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $200K
- Liquidity: $200K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%:
If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolsonaro loses. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the margin will be positive; if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, the margin will be negative; if Flávio Bolsonaro ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Flávio Bolsonaro runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
Related markets
- Brazil Presidential election winner?
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
- Next French presidential election winner?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.