Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
As of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:42:48 UTC, Kalshi traders price Augusto Cury (98.0%), Ronaldo Caiado (4.0%), Renan Santos (1.0%). The market has $154K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Cury | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Renan Santos | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Ciro Gomes | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Aldo Rebelo | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Fernando Haddad | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Romeu Zema | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Ratinho Júnior | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $154K
- Liquidity: $154K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Augusto Cury:
If Augusto Cury finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
Sources
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