AR-04 House election: James Russell vote percent
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:14:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 40% (99.0%), At least 24% (94.0%), At least 26% (91.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Sun, 03 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 40% | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| At least 24% | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| At least 26% | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| At least 28% | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| At least 30% | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| At least 32% | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| At least 38% | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| At least 36% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| At least 34% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 40%:
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by James Russell in the 2026 AR-04 House election is 40% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by James Russell ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Sources
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