When will Wales call a snap election?
As of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 23:55:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (14.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (2.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Sat, 08 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $10K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. A snap election is an extraordinary general election to the Senedd under section 5 of the Government of Wales Act 2006. A qualifying call must be announced by a person or body with legal authority to call the election and must specify an actual polling date. Requests for an election, a dissolution resolution, or failure to nominate a First Minister without such a call do not qualify. Ordinary general elections and constituency by-elections do not qualify.
Sources
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