Will the U.S. and China announce an AI safety agreement?
As of Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:51:51 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Oct 1, 2026 (55.0%), Before Dec 1, 2026 (53.0%), Before Nov 1, 2026 (51.0%). The market has $20K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $20K
- Liquidity: $20K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Oct 1, 2026:
If a new AI safety agreement between the U.S. and Chinese governments is formally announced after Issuance and reported by any of the Source Agencies before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement must state that both governments have reached agreement and identify at least one specific agreed measure to assess, prevent, reduce, or respond to harm from AI systems or their misuse. The measure must specify an action, restriction, standard, procedure, or research or operational arrangement that one or both governments agree to undertake or support. A preliminary agreement, agreement in principle, or framework qualifies if it meets this test; signing, final text, ratification, legal enforceability, and implementation are not required. A formal announcement must appear in an official agreement text, communiqué, readout, press release, or other written government statement announcing or confirming the agreement, or be made by an authorized government representative at a government press conference or briefing, leaders' summit, signing ceremony, or formal address. An announcement by either government that expressly states both governments have agreed is sufficient. Informal remarks, including press gaggles, do NOT qualify on their own; publishing their transcript does not change this. A later qualifying formal announcement counts at its own announcement time. A qualifying measure may concern safety testing, incident reporting or response, safeguards against…
Sources
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