When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 02:02:39 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Dec 1, 2026 (52.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (51.0%), Before Apr 1, 2027 (50.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 May 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $9K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Dec 1, 2026:
If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action imposing a new tariff or increasing an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Any qualifying presidential action must be taken personally during the specified time period and explicitly address the topic in its operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration. A specified future effective date qualifies. An agency-only notice, a threat or remark without formal presidential action, or the scheduled activation or expiry of a previously ordered measure does NOT count. Publication or documentation by a Source Agency of the qualifying action personally signed, issued, or promulgated by Trump constitutes its official announcement by Trump; no separate speech or social-media statement is required.
Sources
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