Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 02:40:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price Inheritance Tax Rise (27.0%), Capital Gains Tax Rise (11.0%), Mansion Tax Increase (10.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Thu, 29 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inheritance Tax Rise | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Capital Gains Tax Rise | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Mansion Tax Increase | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Annual Wealth Tax | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Council Tax Replacement | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Inheritance Tax Rise:
If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces an increase in any rate of inheritance tax, or a revenue-raising restriction of an inheritance tax relief or exemption before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. No market resolves on whether a measure is called a "wealth tax." Each market names one specific measure and resolves only on that measure, whatever it is named. A measure set out in the Chancellor's Budget statement or in the Budget documents published by HM Treasury qualifies, and it need not be legislated or in force before Dec 1, 2026. Measures announced by the Scottish or Welsh governments or the Northern Ireland Executive do NOT count. An announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Retraction of previously announced commitments Each market resolves on any announcement meeting its description, with no minimum size: Capital Gains Tax Rise: an increase in any main rate of capital gains tax, even if another ma…
Sources
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