When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (91.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (84.0%), Before Apr 1, 2027 (52.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Sat, 08 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $10K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery and the Clerk of the Crown for Northern Ireland qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Sources
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