When will Texas enact a state income tax?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 09:32:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2030 (25.0%), Before 2029 (13.0%), Before 2028 (8.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Tue, 08 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Before 2029 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Before 2028 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2030:
If a state personal income tax has been enacted in Texas after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. A state personal income tax means a tax imposed by the State of Texas on the income of individuals, including a tax that applies only above a specified income threshold. Taxes on businesses, such as the Texas franchise tax, and local taxes do NOT count. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and approval by Texas voters A constitutional amendment that only removes the Texas Constitution's ban on a personal income tax, without itself imposing the tax, does NOT count. A tax law that depends on voters approving a constitutional amendment counts only once that amendment is approved. The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.
Sources
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