Will Coalición Canaria win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 09:06:44 UTC, Kalshi traders price Coalición Canaria (89.0%), Podemos (77.0%), Se Acabó La Fiesta (15.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 08 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coalición Canaria | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| Podemos | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $17K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Coalición Canaria:
If Coalición Canaria has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Spanish general election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature. Seats refers to seats in the Congress of Deputies. Seats in the Senate do not count toward any market in this event. Three of the four parties named in this event stand on at least one electoral coalition registered with the Junta Electoral Central. Seats won by those coalitions are attributed as follows: A seat won by the registered coalition of Coalición Canaria and Municipalistas Primero Canarias counts toward the Coalición Canaria market. A seat won by the registered coalition Compromís: Front Valencià in the Valencian Community, or by th…
Sources
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