Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 22:34:21 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2029 (93.0%), Before Jul 1, 2028 (83.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (76.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Mon, 08 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2029:
If Marco Rubio leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of State before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. Leaving only another role, such as National Security Advisor, does not count. Being considered for or named to another position, or announcing a campaign for office, does not count unless the announcement states or clearly communicates that Marco Rubio will cease to be Secretary of State. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does not count, including a statement that he will serve until then, that he will not serve in the next administration, or that he will take another office beginning then. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall…
Sources
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