New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 02:54:35 UTC, Kalshi traders price Christopher Luxon (63.0%), Chris Hipkins (46.0%), David Seymour (5.0%). The market has $22K in volume and closes on Sun, 07 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| Chris Hipkins | 46.0% | 46.0¢ | 54.0¢ |
| David Seymour | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Chlöe Swarbrick | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Rawiri Waititi | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Winston Peters | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Mark Mitchell | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Chris Bishop | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Debbie Ngarewa-Packer | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Qiulae Wong | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Nicola Willis | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Marama Davidson | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Erica Stanford | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Simeon Brown | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $22K
- Liquidity: $22K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Christopher Luxon:
If Christopher Luxon becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Nov 7, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Sources
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