Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 02:35:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price Gadi Eisenkot (59.0%), Naftali Bennett (17.0%), Avigdor Lieberman (7.0%). The market has $125K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Jan 2045.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eisenkot | 59.0% | 59.0¢ | 41.0¢ |
| Naftali Bennett | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Itamar Ben-Gvir | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Israel Katz | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Yariv Levin | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Yoav Gallant | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Yair Golan | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Benny Gantz | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Yossi Cohen | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Yair Lapid | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $125K
- Liquidity: $125K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Gadi Eisenkot:
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Gadi Eisenkot, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.
Sources
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