Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Pablo Hernández de Cos (37.0%), Klaas Knot (33.0%), François Villeroy de Galhau (8.0%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Sat, 08 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Hernández de Cos | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| Klaas Knot | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| François Villeroy de Galhau | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Nadia Calviño | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Fabio Panetta | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Olli Rehn | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Joachim Nagel | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Pablo Hernández de Cos:
If Pablo Hernández de Cos formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held, is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the first qualifying permanent holder is not named in this event, each named market resolves No.
Sources
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