When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2035 (83.0%), Before 2030 (58.0%), Before 2029 (22.0%). The market has $348K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Jan 2035.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2035 | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| Before 2030 | 58.0% | 58.0¢ | 42.0¢ |
| Before 2029 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Before 2028 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Before 2027 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $348K
- Liquidity: $348K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2035:
If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem. The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof (unless the market specifically includes counterexamples). Announcements of submitted solutions, peer-reviewed publications without CMI verification, or partial solutions do not qualify. If a mathematician solves a problem but declines the monetary prize, the market still resolves to Yes if CMI officially announces the prize award. The Poincaré Conjecture has already been solved by Grigori Perelman.
Sources
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