Lebanese general election winner?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:23 UTC, Kalshi traders price Election Postponed Beyond Expiration (69.0%), Lebanese Forces (12.0%), FPM (9.0%). The market has $29K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election Postponed Beyond Expiration | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Lebanese Forces | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| FPM | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Amal Movement | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Marada Movement | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| PSP | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Tashnag | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Hezbollah | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Independence Movement | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Kataeb | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $29K
- Liquidity: $29K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Election Postponed Beyond Expiration:
If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Election Postponed Beyond Expiration, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Postponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.
Sources
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