Will another country leave OPEC this year?
As of Mon, 21 Sep 2026 19:25:30 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (11.0%). The market has $26K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $26K
- Liquidity: $26K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Sources
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