Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 17:52:43 UTC, Kalshi traders price S&P 500 Total Return Index (95.0%), BTC (3.0%). The market has $30K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Total Return Index | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| BTC | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $30K
- Liquidity: $30K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for S&P 500 Total Return Index:
If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above BTC for the week of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes. Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.
Sources
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