Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 22:08:36 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (49.0%), Before Jan 20, 2029 (43.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (6.5%). The market has $1.7M in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.7M
- Liquidity: $1.7M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will the House impeach Trump?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.