How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed next year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 500 (86.0%), Above 600 (81.0%), Above 700 (78.0%). The market has $62K in volume and closes on Sat, 29 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 500 | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Above 600 | 81.0% | 81.0¢ | 19.0¢ |
| Above 700 | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Above 800 | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Above 900 | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| Above 1,000 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above 1,100 | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Above 1,200 | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Above 1,300 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Above 1,400 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $62K
- Liquidity: $62K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 500:
If the total number of ground water rights listed as subject to curtailment for the 2027 irrigation season under the Idaho Department of Water Resources' operative curtailment orders in the Surface Water Coalition delivery call is above 500 as of October 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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