How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 02:02:45 UTC, Kalshi traders price UKPM (51.0%), UKPM (36.0%), UKPM (9.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Mon, 08 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| UKPM | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| UKPM | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| UKPM | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| UKPM | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 5 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| UKPM | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for UKPM:
If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official capacity, whether by appointment, election, succession, or acting designation, and performed the duties of that role for any length of time during the time period. If an individual serves multiple non-consecutive terms in the role, they will count once for each term (allowing an individual to be counted multiple times). If an individual holds the role temporarily in an "acting" or "interim" capacity for any amount of time, or is formally designated as such, they count as serving in the role. Dual officeholders count once per person even if holding multiple titles simultaneously. If an individual is appointed but never sworn in, or withdraws before assuming office, they do not count as serving. Vacancies do not count as individuals serving. Posthumous designations or honorary titles do not count.
Sources
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