How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 13:25:48 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 185 (95.0%), At least 190 (95.0%), At least 210 (94.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Feb 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 185 | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| At least 190 | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| At least 210 | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| At least 195 | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| At least 200 | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| At least 205 | 93.0% | 93.0¢ | 7.0¢ |
| At least 215 | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| At least 218 | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| At least 220 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| At least 225 | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| At least 230 | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| At least 235 | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| At least 240 | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| At least 245 | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| At least 250 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 185:
If the Democratic Party holds at least 185 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 7, 2028, general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Independent and unaffiliated members who caucus with Democrats will be included. Every voting seat in the House counts, including any seat not on the 2028 ballot. Vacant and disputed seats count toward no party.
Sources
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