Who will announce a California departure this year?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 22:23:30 UTC, Kalshi traders price Larry Page (15.0%), Chamath Palihapitiya (7.0%), Peter Thiel (5.9%). The market has $35K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Page | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Peter Thiel | 5.9% | 5.9¢ | 94.1¢ |
| Palmer Luckey | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 3.1% | 3.1¢ | 96.9¢ |
| Marc Andreessen | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Jensen Huang | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $35K
- Liquidity: $35K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Larry Page:
If Larry Page announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.
Sources
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